ST. LOUIS — Regional electric monopoly Ameren could be hit harder than many U.S. utilities by new federal rules requiring carbon pollution controls on coal-fired power plants.
The company generates more than half of its power from coal, helping Missouri burn more of the material than any state but Texas. And the utility's biggest power plant, the Labadie Energy Center in Franklin County, accounts for the second-most greenhouse gas emissions of any coal plant in the country.
Ameren said it would take the coming weeks to "closely review new regulations," according to a statement from Craig Giesmann, the utility's environmental services director.
"We will take the necessary time to study it before determining any potential compliance requirements or schedules," he said.
On Thursday, the Environmental Protection Agency announced a suite of new rules that take aim at both air and water pollution from power plants that run on fossil fuels — including one policy that would require coal-fired plants to capture their greenhouse gas emissions.
Plants that aim to operate beyond 2039 would have to cut or capture 90% of their carbon dioxide emissions by 2032, the EPA said. Those that expect to be retired by 2039 would still have to capture some emissions. Plants set to retire by 2032 wouldn't need the emission controls.
The EPA said its analyses show the new power plant rules "will deliver hundreds of billions of dollars" in climate and health benefits — far outweighing compliance costs.
Experts say the new rules are sure to face challenges in court. But they won't dramatically change the trajectory of the nation's aging coal fleet, some say, with remaining plants already exceeding or nearing the end of their lifespans by the time the new requirements take effect.
"The American coal fleet is very old," said Emily Grubert, a professor of sustainable energy policy at the University of Notre Dame. "Most coal plants in the United States are so old that you would probably expect them to shut down by 2035, in any case."
Others agreed that the new rule is essentially "pushing a door that's already open," said Michael Webber, an energy resources and mechanical engineering professor at the University of Texas. He said the rule presents coal plants with a "retrofit or retire" ultimatum that will likely mean more closures rather than massive new investments in the plants.
"In many ways, it's a policy trying to take credit for things that are already happening," said Webber. "Those plants are going to close, anyway. ... The decline is already swift and underway."
Grubert said that the lifespan for many U.S. coal plants is about 50 years — a threshold that the bulk of Ameren's fleet has already surpassed, with the company's trio of active coal plants beginning operation in 1967, 1970 and 1976.
Two of those three facilities are scheduled to retire by time the EPA rule would take effect: The utility's Rush Island plant aims to close by the end of this year, amid a rash of legal problems, including a judge's requirement to install pollution controls. And the Sioux plant is set to close by the end of 2030.
But the EPA rule could affect the utility's plans at Labadie, the coal-power and carbon-emissions behemoth. Ameren plans to retire two of the plant's four generating units by the end of 2036, while keeping the others running until 2042.
Estimates of what it might cost to equip Labadie with carbon capture and storage, or CCS, equipment were not immediately available — from either Ameren or outside industry and activist groups who work with or track the company.
But industry representatives and experts echoed that CCS projects are unlikely to become widely paired with coal plants. The technology is practically nonexistent, they said, and has been installed at just one U.S. coal plant, Petra Nova, outside of Houston.
"The emerging technologies identified in the rules — CCS and hydrogen — have seen little to no deployment at scale so far," said the Electric Power Research Institute in an August report about the EPA's proposed rules.
And industry representatives say that's not likely to change quickly.
"CCS is not yet ready for full-scale, economy-wide deployment, nor is there sufficient time to permit, finance, and build the CCS infrastructure needed for compliance by 2032," said a statement from Dan Brouillette, president and CEO of the Edison Electric Institute, an organization that advocates for the utility industry.
Still, even when coal plants close, experts say those closures shouldn't affect overall electric power reliability.
"These are clunky old Chevy Chevettes," said Webber, the Texas professor. "This really shouldn't affect grid reliability."
Grubert, the Notre Dame professor, added that alternatives — including renewable power sources and "a huge amount of excess capacity" from existing natural gas plants — can take over the void that will be left from coal generation.
Ameren, itself, plans to pour billions toward new renewable energy projects and two gas plants in the coming years.
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